Quebec Real Estate Market in 2026: 7 Trends to Watch Before Buying or Selling

Is this a good time to buy a house in Quebec?

Will home prices finally fall?

Do buyers have more negotiating power?

Should you wait for another drop in interest rates?

And if you are considering a condo, do Quebec's newer co-ownership rules change what you should investigate before buying?

All of these are reasonable questions.

But they often start with the same assumption:

That there is one Quebec real estate market and all you need to determine is whether it is going up or down.

In 2026, the reality is much more nuanced.

Sales have slowed.

Inventory has increased.

Buyers have more choice in certain segments.

The condominium market is rebalancing faster.

Yet median single-family home prices have continued to rise across the province.

And after several years of major changes, the interest rate environment has become more stable.

So should you buy?

Sell?

Wait?

A more useful question may be:

What does today's market mean for the specific property, area, financing and project you are actually considering?

Because you do not buy a provincial average.

You buy a specific property, in a specific market, at a specific price.

Here are the trends that actually matter in 2026.

1. Quebec Home Sales Are Slowing, but That Does Not Mean Prices Are Collapsing

This is probably the first distinction to understand.

The number of transactions and property prices are not the same thing.

According to QPAREB's second-quarter 2026 residential market statistics, Quebec real estate brokers completed 27,296 residential transactions during the second quarter of 2026.

That represented a 5% decrease compared with the same quarter in 2025.

At the same time, the number of properties available for sale increased.

It would be easy to conclude:

“Fewer sales + more properties for sale = falling prices.”

But that is not what the provincial data show.

The median price of a single-family home reached $523,250, up 5% year over year.

For condominiums, the median price reached $405,000, up 1%.

For plexes, the median price reached $690,000, up 2%.

That is why a headline announcing lower sales does not automatically tell you what is happening to property values.

A market can slow without collapsing.

More importantly, a provincial slowdown does not mean every neighbourhood, price range and property type is behaving the same way.

A house in Saint-Laurent, a condo in Brossard and a single-family property in Candiac can therefore be moving within very different competitive environments during the same quarter.

That is also why it helps to distinguish broad statistics from the actual market value of an individual property.

2. The 2026 Outlook Points More Toward Normalization Than a Widespread Market Reversal

Real estate forecasts can be useful.

But only when you understand what they are:

Scenarios, not guarantees.

By mid-2026, sales were slightly below the levels recorded during the first half of 2025 while active listings were rising quickly.

At the same time, residential prices continued to advance, although at a more moderate pace than in 2024 and 2025. QPAREB described the provincial market as showing signs of normalization, while noting important differences between property categories and regions.

That may sound contradictory.

It is not necessarily.

If fewer buyers enter the market but supply remains limited in certain sought-after areas and property categories, prices can remain under pressure.

This is particularly important for someone waiting for a broad price decline before buying.

You could be correct that the market is slowing...

and still never see the type of property you want become substantially cheaper.

A slower market is not automatically a cheap market.

3. Inventory Is Increasing, and That Can Give Buyers More Negotiating Power

One of the most important changes for buyers in 2026 is the increase in available inventory.

More properties available generally means one important thing:

More alternatives.

And alternatives can change negotiations.

Imagine you are interested in a house listed at $700,000.

If almost nothing comparable is available nearby, the seller may have considerable leverage.

But what if five similar properties are available?

The conversation changes.

The buyer can compare:

• price;

• condition;

• renovations;

• lot;

• parking;

• location;

• property taxes;

• and the compromises associated with each property.

But be careful.

More inventory does not automatically mean every seller is prepared to negotiate aggressively.

Conditions vary by municipality, neighbourhood, property type, price range and direct competition.

QPAREB reported that single-family conditions generally continued to favour sellers in the second quarter of 2026, although their negotiating position had weakened in many markets. The condominium segment was rebalancing somewhat faster.

A buyer comparing Longueuil, Saint-Lambert, Brossard and La Prairie may therefore encounter very different levels of competition depending on the property type and price range.

For a buyer, that makes it increasingly important to understand what is truly comparable.

For a seller, one question becomes unavoidable:

At my asking price, what else can my buyer purchase?

That question is central to the strategy I explain in How to Price Your Home to Sell in Quebec: What Should You Actually List It For?

4. Interest Rates Are More Stable, but Affordability Remains a Problem

In September 2026, the Bank of Canada policy interest rate stands at 2.25%. The Bank maintained that rate at its September 2 announcement.

After several volatile years, greater rate stability makes the financial environment more predictable.

But there is a dangerous shortcut:

“The policy rate is lower, so buying a home is affordable again.”

Not necessarily.

The Bank of Canada policy rate is not automatically the mortgage rate offered to a buyer.

Mortgage rates depend on factors including:

• loan type;

• mortgage term;

• fixed versus variable rates;

• bond markets;

• down payment;

• borrower profile;

• and lender conditions.

More importantly, the interest rate is only one part of the equation.

Consider two buyers.

The first obtains a better mortgage rate but pays considerably more for the property.

The second obtains a slightly higher rate but purchases at a better price.

Who made the better transaction?

You cannot answer that based on the interest rate alone.

Purchase price, financing, down payment and total monthly costs have to be analyzed together.

5. Should You Buy Now or Wait for Interest Rates to Fall?

This is one of the most common questions buyers ask.

But it contains a trap.

If you wait only because you expect a better mortgage rate, you are effectively making at least two predictions.

First:

Interest rates will fall.

Second:

The rest of the market will not change enough to offset the benefit of that lower rate.

But what happens if rates fall and more buyers return to the market?

What if the price of the type of property you want increases?

What if inventory decreases in your preferred area?

What if rates simply remain relatively stable?

Nobody can know those answers with certainty.

A more useful question is:

“Does this property work with my budget and plans under the conditions available today?”

If the answer is no, waiting can be completely reasonable.

But if the answer is yes, building your entire real estate strategy around predicting the next rate move introduces another risk:

Being right about interest rates but wrong about the rest of the market.

For someone working in Saint-Laurent while considering a home on the South Shore, that calculation may also include the time and transportation costs associated with a property in Brossard, Longueuil or Saint-Lambert, not only the purchase price and mortgage rate.

6. House or Condo in 2026: Do Not Compare Purchase Price Alone

Across Quebec, the single-family home and condominium markets are not moving at exactly the same pace.

During the second quarter of 2026, the median price of a single-family home increased by 5% year over year.

For condominiums, the increase was 1%.

Does that automatically make a house the better purchase?

No.

Purchase price is only one part of the true cost of ownership.

For a house, consider:

• exterior maintenance;

• roofing;

• foundation;

• drainage;

• mechanical systems;

• land;

• renovations;

• property taxes;

• insurance;

• and unexpected expenses.

Before taking ownership of an existing house, understanding the building itself is equally important. My guide to pre-purchase home inspections in Quebec explains what an inspection can reveal and what it cannot guarantee.

For a condo, examine:

• condominium fees;

• the contingency fund;

• the contingency fund study;

• the maintenance log;

• financial statements;

• the syndicate's insurance;

• the self-insurance fund;

• meeting minutes;

• planned work;

• special assessments;

• the declaration of co-ownership;

• and building rules.

Compare the total cost and responsibilities. Not just the asking price.

7. Buying a Condo in Quebec in 2026 Requires More Serious Document Review

Quebec's divided co-ownership framework has changed considerably.

According to the Government of Quebec's information on measures applicable to divided co-ownerships, new measures have been in force since August 14, 2025.

Condominium syndicates must notably have a maintenance log and obtain a contingency fund study, according to the applicable deadlines.

For syndicates covered by the transitional provisions, the government provides a period of three years and one day to establish the first maintenance log and obtain the first contingency fund study.

That means a buyer in 2026 may encounter a condominium that is subject to the newer requirements but has not yet completed its first documents.

That distinction matters.

What Is the Maintenance Log For?

The maintenance log is intended to document the building's common components and help plan required interventions.

It helps track work that has already been completed and work that may eventually be required.

Roof.

Windows.

Exterior cladding.

Equipment.

Some building components can cost a substantial amount when they need to be replaced.

The question is therefore no longer simply:

“Does this building look well maintained today?”

It is also:

“What will probably need to be repaired or replaced over the coming years?”

What About the Contingency Fund Study?

The contingency fund study helps assess future major repairs and replacement of common portions and the amounts that should be accumulated to finance them.

Imagine two condominiums.

The first charges:

$250 per month in condo fees.

The second charges:

$400 per month.

Which one costs less?

Instinctively, many buyers would choose the first.

But suppose the first condominium has insufficient reserves and may eventually need to finance significant work.

The second charges more but has planned more effectively for long-term expenses.

Does your answer change?

That is exactly why low condo fees are not automatically an advantage.

The monthly fee tells you what you pay today. It does not necessarily tell you what the condominium may cost tomorrow.

What About Law 141?

Law 141 also brought significant changes to Quebec's condominium insurance framework.

One important element is the self-insurance fund.

Why should a buyer care?

Because when you purchase a condo, you are not buying only the interior of your unit.

You are becoming a co-owner in a structure with shared obligations, expenses, insurance and financial risks.

Questions such as these therefore become relevant:

How much money is in the self-insurance fund?

What insurance deductibles apply?

Has the building experienced significant claims?

Does the condominium appear financially prepared to deal with certain expenses when they arise?

The Certificate Concerning the Condition of the Co-ownership Also Changes the Information Available

The newer framework also provides for a certificate from the syndicate concerning the condition of the co-ownership.

The objective is to give a prospective buyer more information about the financial and physical situation of the condominium before purchasing.

The question therefore becomes more than:

“Do I like this condo?”

You should also ask:

“What am I buying financially when I become part of this condominium?”

Can Low Condo Fees Hide Future Costs?

They can.

But low fees do not automatically mean there is a problem.

Imagine buying a condo because its monthly fees are $100 lower than those in a neighbouring building.

On paper, you save $1,200 per year.

But what happens if the contingency fund is insufficient and a significant special assessment becomes necessary?

That apparent saving can disappear very quickly.

This does not mean high fees guarantee good management.

And it does not mean low fees necessarily signal a problem.

It means the fee amount, by itself, does not tell you whether a condominium is financially healthy.

In 2026, a condo buyer should therefore go further.

The better question is not:

“How much are the condo fees?”

It is:

“What do the condominium documents tell me about what I may actually have to pay over the coming years?”

That difference can represent thousands of dollars.

For a buyer comparing a condo in Brossard near the REM, a condo in Longueuil and a co-ownership property in Saint-Lambert, those documents can be just as important to compare as the asking price and monthly fees.

Does the Montreal Market Follow the Quebec Market Exactly?

No.

And that is precisely why provincial statistics have limits.

The Montreal metropolitan area is also experiencing a gradual rebalancing.

Activity has slowed while inventory has increased.

The condominium segment has generally shown more signs of rebalancing than the single-family home segment.

But even “Montreal” represents many very different real estate markets.

A house in Saint-Laurent does not necessarily compete for the same buyers as a property in Longueuil.

A condo in Brossard near the REM does not automatically compare with a condo elsewhere on the South Shore.

A house in Saint-Lambert, Candiac, La Prairie or Chambly needs to be analyzed within its own competitive environment.

A property in Boucherville or Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville may attract a different buyer profile again, even when it falls within a similar price range.

That is why:

Provincial statistics provide context. Local comparable properties explain the property.

Is 2026 a Good Time to Buy a House in Quebec?

That depends much more on your situation than on the calendar.

Buying can make sense when:

• your financial situation is stable;

• you have the necessary down payment;

• your financing leaves you with a reasonable margin of safety;

• you expect to keep the property long enough;

• the property actually fits your needs;

• and the price is consistent with its market.

Waiting can also make sense if purchasing would require you to use virtually all of your financial capacity or if your personal circumstances may change quickly.

There is an important distinction:

The market can be ready for you while you are not ready for the market.

The opposite can also be true.

Should You Get Mortgage Pre-Approval Before Looking?

Generally, it is an excellent first step.

Mortgage pre-approval can help you better understand:

• your borrowing capacity;

• your down payment;

• your potential mortgage payment;

• a realistic price range;

• and how different interest rate scenarios may affect your budget.

But be careful with one common mistake.

The maximum amount a lender is prepared to lend you is not necessarily the amount you should spend.

A property comes with other expenses:

• municipal and school taxes;

• insurance;

• electricity;

• heating;

• maintenance;

• repairs;

• condominium fees, where applicable;

• transportation;

• and personal expenses.

Being able to buy and being able to live comfortably after buying are two different things.

What About First-Time Buyers in 2026?

Affordability remains one of the biggest challenges.

The mistake is often to focus almost entirely on the down payment.

But buying does not end on the day you sign at the notary's office.

A first home can require you to coordinate:

• down payment;

• financing;

• inspection;

• closing costs;

• land transfer tax;

• moving;

• maintenance;

• an emergency fund;

• and sometimes immediate renovations.

Imagine using almost all of your available cash to buy.

Then, a few weeks later:

A repair.

An appliance stops working.

An unexpected expense appears.

Suddenly, a property that was “affordable” on paper feels much less comfortable.

Being able to buy the property and being able to comfortably live with the property are two different questions.

Is a Single-Family Home Automatically a Better Investment Than a Condo?

No.

The recent increase in the median price of single-family homes does not guarantee their future performance.

Likewise, slower median price growth in the condominium market does not mean a specific condo is a poor investment.

When analyzing a property as an investment, consider:

• the price paid;

• financing;

• carrying costs;

• maintenance;

• income, if applicable;

• applicable rules;

• local demand;

• competing properties;

• and your exit strategy.

A property can belong to a strong-performing segment and still be purchased at too high a price.

Another can belong to a less spectacular segment and still represent a strong transaction.

The property type provides context. The numbers determine whether the investment works.

Will Home Prices Fall in Quebec?

Nobody can guarantee that.

The available 2026 data point instead to a market where sales have slowed, supply has increased and price growth has become more moderate.

That can create more balance.

But conditions remain very different from one region and segment to another.

Some properties may require price reductions.

Others may still receive multiple offers.

Some areas may slow.

Others may continue to have limited inventory.

That is why waiting for “the market to fall” can be a much less precise strategy than it sounds.

Which market?

Which area?

Which property type?

Which price range?

Those answers make the question much more useful.

What If You Are Thinking About Selling in 2026?

The same rebalancing that gives buyers more choice also changes the seller's strategy.

When buyers have more options, they can compare:

• price;

• condition;

• renovations;

• location;

• lot;

• parking;

• cost of ownership;

• and the compromises associated with each property.

A property listed too high can therefore lose momentum.

And once that momentum is gone, price is not the only issue.

Buyers may start asking:

“Why is it still for sale?”

The seller's strategic question becomes:

“At my asking price, what else can my buyer purchase today?”

Your property does not compete against a provincial average.

It competes against actual properties your buyer can visit this week.

In Saint-Lambert, for example, a buyer may also compare a property with options in Longueuil or Brossard. In Candiac, competition may also come from La Prairie or Saint-Constant, depending on the buyer's budget, property type and transportation needs.

That is why both current market value and asking-price strategy matter when preparing a property for sale.

Can Real Estate Forecasts Tell You When to Buy or Sell?

They can help you understand the context.

They cannot make the decision for you.

A provincial forecast does not know:

• your down payment;

• your mortgage;

• your employment situation;

• your expected holding period;

• your current home;

• your neighbourhood;

• your tolerance for risk;

• or the specific property you are considering.

Real estate forecasts are therefore much more useful when they help you ask better questions.

Not when they are used to search for certainty that does not exist.

10 Questions to Ask Before Making a Real Estate Decision in 2026

Before buying, selling or investing, ask yourself:

1. What is the actual market for this property type in this area?

2. Is local inventory increasing or decreasing?

3. Which comparable properties are genuinely relevant?

4. What will my total monthly ownership cost be?

5. What happens if my expenses increase?

6. How long do I expect to keep the property?

7. What major repairs or expenses could arise?

8. For a condo, what do the co-ownership documents actually reveal?

9. What other properties can a buyer purchase at the same price?

10. Does this decision still work if the market does not behave exactly as I expect?

That last question deserves particular attention.

Because a strong real estate decision should not require every prediction to be perfect.

What Should You Really Expect From the Quebec Real Estate Market in 2026?

Probably not one single scenario.

The market is showing signs of moderation.

Sales have slowed.

Inventory has increased.

Buyers have more choice in certain segments.

The condominium market is rebalancing more quickly.

Quebec's co-ownership framework has also evolved, requiring condo buyers to look much further than monthly fees alone.

At the same time, median single-family home prices have continued to rise at the provincial level.

So is 2026 a good year to buy?

A bad year to sell?

The problem with those questions is that they look for a provincial answer to a deeply personal and local decision.

For a buyer, the real question is:

Does this property work with my budget, needs and the current conditions of its market?

For a seller:

At my price, how does my property actually compare with the alternatives my buyer can choose?

For an investor:

Do the numbers work without requiring perfect future appreciation to justify the purchase?

And for a condo buyer:

What do the co-ownership documents reveal about the expenses and financial risks I may actually assume after purchasing?

That is where market statistics become useful.

Not when they try to predict your decision.

When they help you make a better one.

Whether your project is in Saint-Laurent, Brossard, Longueuil, Saint-Lambert, La Prairie, Candiac or elsewhere in Greater Montreal, provincial statistics should provide context. The decision still comes back to the local market, the property and your situation.

Do not try to predict the market perfectly. Make sure your decision still makes sense if the market does not follow your exact forecast.

The right decision. At the right time... For the right reasons.

Jonathan Cabana
Residential and Commercial Real Estate Broker
eXp Québec
Greater Montreal | South Shore
(514) 476-0730